making money with charles payne

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david: charles payne, i'm going to give you seven seconds. it's all yours is. charles: i appreciate that. i think it's because it's friday. have a great weekend to get a good afternoon. i'm charles payne and this is "making money with charles payne" raking right now, six day winning streak with a s&p struggling to stay in that plus. you have most sectors actually higher, but the biggest and most influential under pressure, it's getting clobbered. is this just a bump in the road? the battle is on between strong earnings on one hand, higher inflation on the other and the question is which lasts longer and my panel of experts and the guidance you need.

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plus, speaking of earnings, toymaker mattel after a monster beat. what is this great turnaround and will we be able to get christmas toys and time? bitcoin's future etf making its debut today. we will explain what they are and what the excitement is and leading the company will join me later. all of that and so much more on "making money with charles payne". ♪♪ charles: by now you all then know-- story of earning seasons with lots of big beats on the bottom line always help. more struggles and i thought on the top line and of course those that ms. have held to pay unless you have a silver tongued ceo who is able to dazzle on the

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earnings call, new line mask. the big measuring stick i think is how well they are navigating the supply chain front. also, the stuff american taste buds flirted with, alcohol induced seltzer and plant -based meet. what happened? they took a massive chart almost $8 on the hard seltzer appeared this is a stock, $1300 a share in april. then beyond to meet cut their guidance citing a decline in demand and it feels like maybe the stuff is better suited somewhere else. $235 stock a couple of years ago and look where it is now. also, what may also fade fast is federal reserve and their accommodation.

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to rate hikes next year end even more in 2023. all of this to deal with and how do you navigate? let's bring in someone who knows how to do it well, gemma paulson. jim, we have strong household. earnings season has been pretty strong and on the other side you have high inflation and less accommodation from the fed so what is an investor to do? >> well, charles, we will get a correction at some point. we could have one yet this year or early next year. we are due. we have some pressures of merging with higher rates and higher inflation fears, emerging optimism as markets go to new high and tapering, we will get that, but i also think the economy will stay really strong next year and probably slow down from 6% growth to four and a half and that will continue to provide profitability, i think. a couple of other things as well, i think covid we will get the school

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aged kids vaccinated before the end of the year end probably all kids sometime early next year. we will get boosters distributed and i think we will accept that covid is a part of life, but it will allow us to get back to pretty normal making a big difference. and then the question becomes the supply chain problems and personally, i think we will catch up with that. one of the things if i could that's underappreciated on the supply each side is that a lot of the supply metrics are doing well even though there are trailing demand. we had 5% growth annualized growth in the third quarter. that's a huge increase of labor supply. we just had almost 8.8 million people come off of unemployment claims since august. there will be a big burst in the labor force participation as a result. productivity is growing 3.3% year to date, another big supply boost , capital,

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nondefense was flat for 20 years and they've gone on to new highs in the last year, so i think there's a lot of good things happening. say you will catch up with demand and that's why i stay bullish on stocks and probably focus more on small caps, cyclicals and may be international stocks away from the s&p 500. charles: i agree with everything you said and i would add a caveat that i think we, the people, society have to live with covid and it's not going to go completely away, but i think it's the policies that have slowed the economy down more than it had be particularly in certain states so you wonder about that and maybe these officials should let us live with this and let the economy grow as much as i can. in the meantime though, it sounds like you are saying buckle up for at least one nice downside, but you think it will be brief? >> i do. i think it could be

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sharp. may be as much as 15% when it does come. i think that with the covid rollover, delta rollover we are in an upswing in the economy and maybe we go higher yet before we have a correction, but i think s&p 500, 5000 next year, charles. i think that's a real possibility and some of the broader markets may do better even if we fall 10 to 15% along the way first. >> always appreciate your knowledge and wisdom. >> you to. charles: speaking of which we will double upon knowledge and wisdom. here's the thing i find intriguing as we have so many creative ways to blame the supply chain disruption. we don't have refrigerators. advertisers killing orders because if they advertise and people want something you can't deliver it anyway. rebecca, how long do you think this will last and what should be the

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lessons we learn, not just individual companies, but a nation that is so reliant on global supply chain that has disrupted our lives more than, 19 has? >> you are said this past weekend that he expects it to continue for the long-haul. that wasn't very encouraging and it's a shame we didn't really leverage the trump trade war to have less alliance on global supply chains and have more reliance on america, but is the protocols. these protocols are outrageous. one case in china and they shut down the world largest-- third largest port. it's september we had 16 truck loans for everyone tracker that was taking loads out so the american people is revolting on vaccine mandates. i heard yesterday the cnn town hall that it was basically one out of three emergency responders say no, i

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will quit my job so this administration needs to wake up and say people are rejecting the mandate and willing to lose their job and we need the workers. charles: by the way, pete buttigieg said something about the long haul, no caps on intended. jim, let me pick up on that. on the worker strike part because that's hurting everyone from rails to delivery companies to homebuilders and i thought higher wages would have solved the problem. what's going on there? >> well, they just started going up and they have not gone up long enough and large enough to offset the huge cost of living increases that these workers are finding. you wonder if real incomes are even growing and you see it in consumer sentiment numbers. you see it in the ratings for the president. wages have to go up more for longer before the worker's whole, but it will happen it-- with time. charles: rebecca, on the-- speaking of the administration

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with lots of rumors swirling out of washington d.c. about the budget. looks like they are zeroing in on personal assets and unrealized gains appear what, i mean, it sort of premature work, but we see the writing on the wall to work what can someone do to protect themselves? what do you do if someone taxes unrealized gains? >> this is extremely alarming as a-- you have basically proposing a market to market with derivatives and carried interest, so they say it's targeted to the super rich but let's get real we know what's coming as they are looking for a market to market capital gain affecting all americans that have groped-- brokerage accounts which are millions and millions of americans and we know they are pushing capital gains to 40%. you start with the super rich, but it trickles down. we need to really recognize this. also, automatic

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reporting with the 400 million bake accounts of americans so where are we headed with this totalitarian, common mistake. it's not a free people if we are automatically reporting to the government everything we are doing. we are just controlled. charles: there is part of this, i think, that's good news and it looks like because of senator sinema corporate tax hikes are off the table. what does that mean for the market? >> on balance on the surface you say if they don't raise corporate taxes that's a good thing for profits in the market, but i'm afraid they will make up for it in ways that make no economic sense. taxing unrealized capital gains is a complete distortion of the capitalistic economy and you can only take capital gains taxes up so far before you start to dislocate the economics in the economy. i'm afraid any last-minute pitch to get

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this deal done they will do things that are economically unsound, so i would rather see a slight increase in the corporate rate. it's more simple and easy to deal with the. charles: or how about none of the above. you helped us out a lot a couple of weeks ago, so you always tell us not to panic and it's another thing to-- what you see is the best opportunity right now? >> you continue to buy the dip as jamie diamond said, we can live with higher growth and inflation and higher interest rates as long as the economy is growing and i think the market is over fearing how much the fed will have to raise rates. this inflation is episodic, not going back to the 1970s so i think some of the quality growth stocks like apple and microsoft, you know the median growers that can

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control their margins and can grow in all sorts of economies, you get an opportunity. charles: thank you both very much. have a great weekend and i appreciate you both are coming out, getting toys under the tree will be harder this holiday season. i will ask the ceo of mattel about that. he's doing an amazing job at the company. meanwhile, president biden is frail-- failing in his attempt to get the spending package through. we'll be right back.

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charles: abiding sanders spending will is battled around as the democrats continue to craft a bill that appeals to every mender-- member and the party and the bad news is the bill is still a lot, but the good news is that so far-- maybe he just won't happen at all. i'm going to bring in larry kudlow. i read this morning that we should be careful about breathing a sigh of relief over the

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smaller bill because they say it's frontloaded on's bending and backloaded on taxes and that will fuel inflation even more than the original proposal. >> charles, save america, kill the bill. charles: see you tomorrow. [laughter] >> when i started that mantra a couple of mexico, the odds where they would get something, but right now the odds are rising that they will get nothing. look, as i have said, the two main obstacles to this crazy bill which would transform america literally into a socialist country, the two obstacles are joe manchin and kyrsten sinema. they are a lovely couple. he's against spending and she's against taxes. i'm dying to meet her pick she's opposed to the corporate tax hike, capital gain tax hike, the income tax hike. my kind of gal. anyway, because of her position, she has taken

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over a trillion out of the original revenue estimate of 2 trillion, so that will create a very difficult constraint on any future items. joe manchin, however, not only wants to cut back on social welfare spending, he wants means test and he wants job requirements. you have to have work in there . well, the progressives who run the democratic party don't want work they are, they don't want means testing and they do want taxes, so i would say right now there is nothing and nothing will be decided for weeks. biden will go to moscow and mona about global warming and they will have nothing to. charles: by the way china is not going to that, rush is not going to that. >> really? charles: just america. i saw this poll, we talk about polls a lot, but this is from a liberal arts college and it's

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fascinating. i don't know if you had a chance to see it, but one of the things that struck me as they asked a whole bunch of different questions. please tell me this is something people should be absolutely free to do , do you know the number one thing on their? become wealthy. >> wow. charles: this is a larry kudlow kind of thing. this is grinnell college is. >> in iowa. charles: become wealthy. number two is speak their mind, the reason i think it so fascinating is that is not the narrative from politicians or hollywood , it's not the narrative we hear by the way one other part of the poll was amazing, high trust. who do you have high trust in? nurses, doctors and scientists at the top of the list and it wouldn't surprise you that the government is at the bottom. we don't trust the federal government which tells us we should feel

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bad for wanting to become wealthy which is what liberals and democrats agree on. this is the world, larry. >> i got to go to grinnell college and spend the weekend there or something. it's good to hear that and it's a pity-- see this is how far washington-- joe biden's washington so far away from the values coming out of this grinnell college poll and that's too bad anyway, but you know you and i have talked a lot about the value of work, the dignity of work, the virtues of work and you can climb the ladder of opportunity if you are on government welfare dependency and-- in some way even though i am a supply side and i don't like higher taxes, in some way that is the worst part of this washington budget resolution stuff. they would entrap people into essentially a permanent state of dependency and you got these left-wing columnist that i read to say well, we are

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changing the work leisure trade-off which means we will pay you not to work and we will pay you to have leisure. i'm telling you that will rip this country apart. it will rip the fabric, the whole american idea is based on work and success in climbing the ladder. charles: would be the end of america. china would step in and be the preeminent power in the world. we were able to carry the load and we saved the planet on so many occasions, world war i, world war ii and have reinvested in the world and you can talk about the ugly american when the tourists show up and do something dumb in your country, but we have saved this world so many time in china would not do that. >> china is a totalitarian country and completely government controlled economy, but china does praise hard work. that has always been there affect. charles: xi jinping actually

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gave an interview a couple of days ago and said our kids, young adults will not lie flat. no one in our country will ever get paid for not working and we do not want to be a socialist europe. that's what he said to we could talk about this all day long. i hope it's a wake-up call. >> let's go to grinnell. charles: i'm down. of course, folks make sure you catch kudlow every weekday 4:00 p.m. eastern on foxbusiness and we will be right back.

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looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. charles: there are a lot of unique aspects of this economy and stock market rally that will either go down in history as an anomaly or it's a matter of time before everything reverts back. if you act mike milt wilson of morgan's danley is the ladder and says the only firearm in history the s&p has seen

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80% of a down% and at some given point and get there hasn't been a trial down. first of all, is wilson right? will we see a 10% hit in this market before the year is over? >> i agree, but that's because monetary policy -- i don't see that happening at. charles: this notion that whenever-- are you one of the folks that says as long as the fed is printing money the market goes up and when they stop printing the market goes down? >> if the fed stops printing money i don't think the market stops. charles: so your expertise among many expertise is finding these companies, inc. and many in and eventually i think getting does

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the public markets have been interesting. on the one hand ipos have been up. in the last two days we have had two superhot spac. at the donald trump spac of a thousand%, mind-boggling. i know there are a lot of young investors i mean could this thing revitalize the whole spac-- i didn't think you are a fan of that. >> spac were on fire at the beginning of the year. some of the rules change and when it comes to these spac, maybe it will make spac great again, i don't know. i think that company should not be a positive company and i actually think they will continue to make spac-- perhaps not taken as seriously as they should be.

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charles: i read a tweet and i went to bring this up that you put out because i want to get your thoughts. you said celebrating 15 years in the usa. i fell in love with the spirit and moved from england, accent still intact. do you still feel that frontier spirit out there? >> i feel it now more than ever. when you look at the numbers in the business formation that has been filed, through covid 1.4 million. you see a nation with huge resilience and people come out perhaps looking at ways to get the flexibility they can't get in the traditional workplace. charles: do americans give themselves too much of a hard time? you go to other parts of the world and people look up to america. you wouldn't think that if you are here, but i think because of that, native americans miss a lot of opportunities. >> i think america should be proud of its spirit. i am a brit and i go back to my home

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frequently and i spend a lot of time in asia and south america and the u.s. has positivity when it comes to business. if the tolerance of a failure that is necessary. everyone wants a comeback story. charles: great to have you in the studio. folks, i went to bring in ceo willie-- lily. i have known you for a long time and you are a trailblazing entrée nor anoint you to follow up on that if you can. you seen this amazing spike in startups. what is that all about? >> i think we see macroeconomic forces at play and the pandemic for addition-- conditions. at the same time over 60 million filings of new businesses since the pandemic started. i think we have a tiffany as people as americans, but also with low interest rates and

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the economic conditions making it more favorable what do you have to lose if you lost your job? why not try opening a business and that's what we are seeing. charles: you gave a ted talk this spring. you said diversity is overrated and you said that she was essentially said leaders need to understand cultural intelligence. what is that all about? >> that's right. i think our energy is misguided as we lose track at the fact that we have become a more diverse nation. that means the workforce, the buying power, the customers of the future are going to be diverse so let's focus on cultural intelligence with an inclusive approach to business decisions through talent, through pipeline efforts instead of trying to create division so let's stop debating so much what is the pc or right term and debate how much money to invest in the shifting

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demographics. charles: you do a lot of pulling work among other things and one of the recent polls president biden is heading south. that's not a surprise because it's happening in almost every poll, but it's intriguing because among hispanic people he's losing a lot of ground because of his fiscal policies. what is going wrong? >> you know, to put the numbers, 52% over 2.6 million digital discussions we analyzed and it looked at it negative among hispanics. he owes his victory to the hispanic vote. and a lot of it has to do with the fiscal policies because of the shut down, the industries mostly affected were those hispanic and we went to get our kids back in school and back to work and that's just not working out as it continues the way it is now. charles: listen, people want to unleash our greatness, not hold it back. lily, great to see you.

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talk again soon. >> thank you, charles. charles: still to come, bitcoin etf took a big step in the crypto currency and of course regulatory so what is next. also, ceo from mattel. ♪♪ wealth is breaking ground on your biggest project yet. worth is giving the people who build it a solid foundation. wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. wealth is watching your business grow. worth is watching your employees grow with it.

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♪ charles: americans and investors love a great turn around a story and that's what's happening at mattel which is posted strong earnings. is ceo of ynon kreiz enjoins now. you know i want to put

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in perspective what's really happening. we hear the term turn around and i mattel's stock tumbled from $47 a share in 2013, $7 last year, nine straight quarters of earnings from 2016, 2018 and you come in as chairman and ceo and now the company is beating the street on revenue and earnings for six straight quarters. how are you doing this? >> thank you. we had another great quarter for our product and in fact we achieved growth and gain market share in five quarters in a row. we are on track to achieve our highest growth rate in record and increase guidance for the third time this year. the point here, charles, is that the mattel team continues to execute strategy you and the company is on a clear path in an profitability and accelerate growth and we have been in an

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excellent position to create shareholder value. charles: i did see a bit of margin pressure and i assume its supply chain but i read you have supplies up so maybe it's labor, raw materials. where is the pressure coming from and how much -- how fearful should we be watching that we won't have the toys we want in time for christmas? >> what we saw is cost inflation that's impacting our margin, which is something we are addressing through pricing and cost saving actions that we expect over time will mitigate the impact of cost inflation to her on the supply chain, we just did a really good job managing through supply chain disruption in the quarter. we have been doing it successfully for the past six quarters and it's not that we were not impacted, but we anticipated much of the disruption. we anticipated short supply and the fact--

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factoring that into our planning with mitigating actions that enabled us to work through those issues a. charles: toys in time for the holidays, will they be on the shelves? >> well, we expect a strong holiday season. seeing strong demand. our retail orders are strong, retail promotion plans are in place and we have exciting range of new products that we believe will be in high demand. charles: no doubt about the demand. i just want to make sure we can get them. i went through your numbers and i thought it was mind-boggling, action figures up 26%. is that about he-man? that's popular again to he-man is a great franchise and we have a lot of potential they are. yes, the action figure category was actually up

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in the quarter 50% and a 76 year-- 76% year to date. masters of universe and he-man were key drivers and we also saw growth from "jurassic world" and wwe so a lot of great franchises in the category out of our poor follow management approach. charles: i think a lot of adults are buying those wwe dolls for themselves. real quick, you stated in your documents in your presentation you are trying to transform the ebony to an ip driven court toy company. what would that look like? >> the opportunity for us is to grow not just in the toy category, which we are doing strongly now, but also in an additional category that directly adjacent to the toy industry and are driven by big franchises, big market moving franchises that we owned. we owned one of the

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strongest catalogs in the world for children and family entertainment and it's also to participate in television, online games, digital experiences, licensing and merchandising and other highly large verticals. charles: i want to say congratulations. you are doing a phenomenal-- i am shocked the stock is not higher, but i have to say you have delivered and then at some. ynon kreiz, thank you and hopefully we will talk soon. folks, the second bit-- bitcoin etf trading. also snap shares imploding after their earnings support appeared at the numbers were not that bad but it look like tim cook may have cooked snap. we will find out when we come back. ♪♪ (rhythmic electro rock music) (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito!

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charles: bitcoin strategy etf making its debut today, the second usb etf or bitcoin etf, the ceo joins me now. first of all, congratulations. i don't think that timing could have been better but a lot of the

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investors have been asking me what is the difference between owning bitcoin or trading bitcoin futures? >> thank you for having me on. there is definitely a difference between not only just the features based etf, but physically backed etf and to your greater point also why by it over directly owning bitcoin and i will start with just the first to. this different from the etf. we have a spot bitcoin etf that was filed in january. that, we think the features based etf is a great vehicle. fcc is clearly signaled a preference for futures etf versus a spot fund for now and we think the time has come and it's exciting. charles: some folks have said these are better vehicles or institutions than individuals investors. what you think about that? >> i think they are great for both. i think there's a lot

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you know a very large pool of wealth that's been sitting on the sidelines wanting to get into bitcoin and it's been waiting for traditional migrate vehicle that they can allocate to. while i think it's good for retail, because of the ability to allocate in your 4 o 1 k, ira, retirement account, but i think that yes, people that have been waiting are those institutions and i think that the time has come. charles: so, bitcoin seems to have won the war against gold with results to the inflation hedge and now a market cap raider than the swiss franc. is it gaining some global-- global safe haven or reserve currency kind of thing? >> i think it has. again, it's interesting to use bitcoin as an inflation hedge because it's a deflationary asset. what else can we point to? there is great adoption in the world and if you

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look at el salvador now utilizing bitcoin as legal tender in other countries looking to do the same. it's definitely utilized as a digital store of value and inflation hedge as you mentioned and also now as a legal tender in somber nations so it's adoption indeed. charles: for a long time one of the hesitant, reason people were hesitant about bitcoin and crypto just the regulators. we saw china go to war and we heard all kinds of rumblings from government officials in this country. how much does this approval, the fact that you are trading today remove some of the concern, some of the worries that there will not be efforts to derail this? >> i think it removes a lot of concern especially here in the u.s. i think regulators are still getting comfortable with this new asset. it's-- you know, approving this vehicle,

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approving bitcoin to be within a wrapper of traditional market vehicle which everyone has been comfortable with for a while is a signal to all markets whether it's from the crypto world or traditional markets that bitcoin is here to stay and they are looking to get more comfortable with it. charles: well, congratulations and i look forward to talking to you in the future. i went to catch up again and find out what is next, but thank you. snap warning that apple's new privacy feature hurts their advertising revenue and the question is will this apply to all and if so what is the damage going to be or on the other hand could this be an amazing buying opportunity. to market pros help us break that down next to. ♪♪ ♪ ♪

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charles: so social media, we know, is becoming a ubiquitous part of our lyes. the founders have crossed over from business to main street, superstardom, but the tiers are turning to jeers -- tears are turning to jeers, and we're wondering how seniors a pushback may be coming. -- serious a pushback may be coming. guy, start with this snap number, the earnings were pretty good, they beat strong gains, i

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thought, this users, but the stock slammed after saying that changes in apple's iso measuring somehow hurt the advertisers. you know, adam, i really thought about you as soon as that came out and the stock was down 25%. you've been reaching out to me for weeks saying there's something wrong with the declining impact of social media advertising. what exactly is happening here? >> charles, it's a complete monkey wrench in the ecosystem of advertising. apple's basically hoarding the data. as you know, they control 50% of the mobile data, give or take, and they've shut off tracking with outside apple apps. so apple apps get your data, anybody outside it was turned off on may 1st. so anybody downstream of that has been cut in half from a data stand point. it's a major issue in the industry. charles: so if you're advertising, you essentially have no way of assessing how effect if i it is. >> about half the audience is invisible to most marketers right now. this is not a subtle issue, it's

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a major issue. we've been screaming about it since may 1st. charles: sylvia, goldman told reiterated their buying the stock, would you be buying this on weakness? >> -- several reasons, number one, i think they're going to find a way around it, perhaps like facebook. maybe there'll be a knife fight. number two, snap is going to invest in augmented reality, so they're going to partner with companies like disney and bumble to have user experiences, you know, try out cars, things line that with the consumer through augmented types of technology. the digital world, digital shopping, digital communications is growing, and the economy's reopening so people are going to start having, you know, more snap stories, short-term stories about things they're doing out in the world particularly with the borders reopening and international travel and things. so i do think that they have a good, long runway here. it's that next generation of social media, and, look, i think

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these companies, you get creative. for example, the they start paying people in crypto to share their data, then all bets are back on. charles: so, adam, you know, it's this part about tim cook flexing his muffle, making him something of a kingmaker among this whole digital gateway, what can the company do? do you think some of the things sylvia suggested could offset what apple's doing, this data hoarding? >> hasn't worked so far. and i'll tell you i think first party data is going to come out being star of this. wall hart, bed bath and -- walmart, bed bath and beyond, they have the cash register slips. they know what you actually bought as first party data. the secondary and tertiary data doesn't seem to resonate anymore, and where it's showing up is through the conversion into sale. you can get to people, but if you can't track it to a sale, the advertisers are going to move on. they're not dumb. charles: where are they going to move to? >> initially, i believe, google.

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because google's still tracking with android phones, but come next spring, they're going to do the same thing tim cook just did, then you're going to have a fist tight. that's the right term, i believe. charles: nvidia, i guess it only had to go up a gazillion percent before they figured something out. but hammered on earnings, is this how the changing of the guard is in the chip space? nvidia's up 100% in five years, intel's only up 43%. >> yeah, right. and 38 billion to 540 billion in market cap. look, nvidia has cash, leadership, they're deeply cemented in the 5g rollout of the future and super power cloud computing computers, they're really focused on the next generation, and they have the money to spend to get there. with intel you have this 2-3 year backlog of things that have to go right. they were low on margins for pc,

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for laptops, cash flow going out the window to build the chip factories, so they just need some time to catch up, and -- charles: they're killing 'em. i remember intel was invincible, but i think they kind of squandered that. it's not unusual. adam, sylvia, thank you both very much. you know, liz claman, for a split second we had the cp effect, and then it started to fade. i think it's the weekend effect. i'm not sure. what can you do in this last hour? [laughter] liz: it's the fed, the fedded fd and and the fed if, is it not? met me see what i can do. we've got the broader market struggling for altitude as the federal reserve gives the markets an early halloween jump scare. what did chairman jay powell say specifically that frightened traders midday? we take a looked at the vix intraday, the fear index spiked 6% to its high of 16. this happened just before 11:30 a.m. eastern time. you can see it right

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